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A first step is to look at the range of relevant new information since the last projections were produced - such as changes in commodity prices (in particular the oil price), exchange rates and interest rates, fiscal trends, the path of economic activity and other key variables – to see how the recent past has developed differently from what was previously expected.
With this new information, and using the previous set of projections as a starting point, the effects of the new elements and revised judgments are typically assessed on the basis of model simulations using the NIGEM global model and short-term indicator models.
The use of indicator models For the euro area and individual G7 economies, the near-term assessment also takes particular account of projections from a suite of statistical models using high frequency indicators to provide estimates of near-term quarterly GDP growth, typically for the current and next quarter or so.
This analysis builds on the work of Sédillot and Pain (2003) and Mourougane (2006) in using short term economic indicators to predict quarterly movements in GDP by efficiently exploiting all available monthly and quarterly information.
Assessing the current situation An important starting point in the forecasting process is the re-assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy as a whole.
Here, a combination of model-based analyses and statistical indicator models play an important role in "setting the scene" at the start of each projection round.
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While the term has several meanings, the most frequent usage refers to two or more people exploring whether they are romantically or sexually compatible by participating in dates with the other.
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